Alexis Lafrenière Signs 7-Year, $52.15 Million Extension

The New York Rangers have agreed to a contract extension with Alexis Lafrenière, and his seven-year deal comes in as a great value that has the potential to be even more of a steal in the coming years.

For some, there may be a bit of initial sticker shock to see that Lafrenière is making the jump from an AAV of $2.33 million to $7.45 million next season, but he's off to a hot start fresh off a breakout 2023-24 campaign in which he produced very well in primarily 5v5 minutes.

More important than the numbers that show up in both the score and spread sheets, Lafrenière has shown an increased level of confidence, swagger, and aggressiveness that suggests he has what it takes to put himself into position to be even more productive than last year. Had the Rangers' 2020 first overall pick stacked two impressive seasons back to back, I don't think Chris Drury would have been able to lock him up long term at this type of AAV.

The salary cap is projected to be in the $92 million range next season, and Lafrenière's share of the cap would be 8.09% if that figure holds. In order to put that percentage in perspective, that last young homegrown forward with upside that the Rangers signed long term was Derek Stepan in 2015, and his 6-year, $39 million deal with an AAV of $6.5 million initially took up 9.10% of the cap.

Prior to signing that deal, Stepan skated in 362 games and had a line of 89-163-262 while averaging 18:18 per game. This included power play time, and 64 of his 262 points came while playing on one of the man-advantage units as the team's top center.

Lafrenière currently has a line of 77-76-155 in 305 games while averaging 15:16 per game on average. Just 12 of his points (5 goals and 7 assists) have come on the power play, and contextually it's quite impressive to have that level of 5v5 production in limited minutes.

When breaking down his stats on a rate basis, Lafrenière is averaging just .51 points per game to this point which lags behind the .72 points per game that Stepan put up prior to signing his extension. If Lafrenière had been getting similar minutes and usage that Stepan enjoyed, I think it is fair to suggest the gap in production wouldn't be as large.

The biggest difference between the two players and their respective contracts is that prior to signing a deal, the most goals Stepan scored in a season was 21, and that came in his rookie season. Lafrenière is coming off a 28-goal campaign, and his 57 points actually ties Stepan's career high which came in his age 23 season with the 2013-14 Rangers. This is a league in which goal scorers get paid, and would anyone be surprised if this season Lafrenière set a new high with 30 to 35 goals?

There are a lot of reasons to believe that bigger and better things are coming for Lafrenière, and the Rangers are paying money upfront now to avoid potentially having to pay even more a year from now. I can understand the desire of wanting to wait another season, making him prove it again, and being very sure before making such an investment, but I think that course of action would have been riskier than just paying him now.

Now feels like a good time to mention that the Rangers only ended up paying Stepan $6.5 million when they did because his prior deal was a bridge. Stepan was an RFA at the same time as Ryan McDonagh, and wanted a deal similar to his. McDonagh's deal was for 6 years and $28.2 million dollars, and had an AAV of $4.7 million.

The team couldn't make it work financially so Stepan remained an RFA while trying to come to a deal he felt was fair. After he was lambasted during a preseason intermission segment by Glen Sather, Stepan relented and signed a bridge contract that paid him $3.075. Interestingly enough, Stepan only lasted two seasons post his big extension before being dealt to the Arizona Coyotes. Had the team been able to sign him at the number he originally wanted, things could have gone a lot differently. And that brings us back to Lafrenière and the concept of paying him fairly, and also doing things a bit early to try and save in the future.

Lafrenière got stronger as the 2023-24 season went on, and he arguably was one of the best forwards in the entire league during the playoffs. That was the result of him pushing the pace and using his skill and creativity, and those gains were because he had the confidence and knowledge that he could be an elite player.

He's entered this season with that mindset, and to me his toe-drag against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the season opener to me came across as the perfect sign of things to come. He's currently sitting at 4-3-7 in 7 games played, and while there is a risk that he only ever tops out at being just at or under a point per game player, this deal isn't all that dissimilar to ones the team has handed out before.

It also it lines up with recent deals signed by young players with upside like Matt Boldy (7 years, $7 million), Matty Beniers (7 years, $7.14 million), Seth Jarvis (8 years, $7.42 million), Cole Caufield (8 years, $7.85 million), and Lucas Raymond (8 years, $8.075 million) just to name a few.

But with that said, what are your thoughts on the deal? Too much, too soon? Masterful gambit by Drury? Somewhere in between?