DeAngelo Contract Situation Foreshadows Eventual Departure

With the Rangers’ preseason underway, the team finds itself with an incomplete roster. Defenseman Tony DeAngelo remains a restricted free agent and the two sides don’t appear particularly close to a resolution.

At the heart of the issue is a lack of cap space. After all of the wheeling and dealing this summer, the Rangers are left with just $1.16 million in cap room. Add in a small buffer for maneuverability, and it doesn’t really leave much ambiguity as to what the Rangers can offer DeAngelo.

Told there is currently wide gulf between Rangers and DeAngelo. NYR don’t seem inclined to move off same $925,000 for which Lemieux signed. Puck is in the defenseman’s end.

— Larry Brooks (@NYP_Brooksie) September 13, 2019

Evolving Hockey’s contract projections earmark DeAngelo for roughly $2.4 million on a one-year deal. Even if we dock him based on reputation, there’s no question he should still be earning significantly more than what the Rangers will (really, can) put on the table. DeAngelo is justified in his holdout — he’s worth at least TWICE what the Rangers have offered — but unless there’s a trade or an offer sheet coming it’s difficult to see DeAngelo doing anything except delaying the inevitable.

This is all the lead-in to a bigger problem for head coach David Quinn and eventually general manager Jeff Gorton. The Rangers’ right side of the defense is filled with redundant talent.

Jacob Trouba is a top-pairing defenseman. Over the last three seasons, he ranks 32nd among all defensemen in Wins Above Replacement (Evolving Hockey), and he may very well rank significantly higher had Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers not taken away so many minutes on the right side on Winnipeg’s blueline.

But a more rigorous dig into Trouba’s outputs reveals the vast majority of his value comes on the offensive side of the puck. He’s incredibly gifted at transitioning the puck up the ice, leading rushes and creating offensive zone entries. Once he gains the zone, he is a multi-faceted weapon who ultimately creates a lot of shots for his team.

Defensively, though, Trouba is spotty. Per Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, Trouba ranks in the worst quadrant of NHL defensemen when it comes to defending zone entries. Hockey Viz rates him as a below-average defender, with the opposition generating more offense than average with Trouba on the ice.

(Chart via Hockey Viz, with permission to publish from behind paywall).

There are other factors at play here, as different usage in New York will create different results. One would also expect Trouba to be better defensively from ages 25 to 27 than he was from ages 22 to 24. At best, Trouba can be described as competent defensively, as he’ll take care of his basic responsibilities and hold his own in matchups against top-six forwards. He can play a regular penalty kill shift, and if paired with a capable partner who can take on the brunt of defensive duties Trouba will produce positive results. Trouba probably does not need to be sheltered.

What he isn’t, though, is a shutdown defenseman. The Rangers are going to be in trouble if Trouba is the go-to option for defending the opposition’s superstar winger, or protecting a one-goal lead, or killing a wave of penalties.

Adam Fox is almost certainly not the answer defensively. Almost all of the rookie’s talents are exclusive to moments the puck lies on his stick blade. He’s undersized and shies away from most physical aspects of the game and his defensive instincts aren’t great.

Most concerning is Fox’s skating is mediocre. Many offensive defensemen are able to hide their defensive blemishes with great skating. Fox is likely to have a long, successful NHL career, but unlike Trouba, he might be a player whom coaches need to shelter.

It’s a similar story for DeAngelo; an elite offensive player who isn’t much to write home about defensively. If and when he does finally sign, the coaching staff is going to have its hands full figuring out an appropriate allotment of minutes for those three players. There aren’t enough power-play minutes to go around for all of them, and perhaps even more than one of them will find himself playing more difficult minutes than he is truly capable of.

The Rangers can get away with it for 2019-2020 because this is still a team in transition. Growing pains are to be expected and no reasonable person would expect them to have all of their deficiencies solved in one summer. Inevitably, though, something has to give. All three on the roster long-term seems untenable.

It’s hard to envision Trouba as the odd-man-out following a seven-year, $56M contract with various trade protections. Few players are truly invincible in the salary cap world, but we’re years removed from Trouba ever hitting the chopping block. This current situation will be resolved well before then.

Could it be Fox? It’s possible. For one, he’s yet to officially make the NHL roster. Fox is a high-caliber prospect, but we’re not discussing a can’t-miss commodity like Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes. Let’s first see Fox prove capable at NHL speeds before any decisions are made.

If and when Fox shows he belongs, as expected, it’s difficult to imagine the Rangers would make him the casualty. The Rangers are going to have a very delicate salary cap situation to navigate the next few years, and cutting ties with a player on an entry-level contract through 2022 would seem antithetical to balancing the budget.

The path of least resistance appears to be DeAngelo. He’s currently out of contract with no apparent resolution in the works, and any settlement will almost certainly be short-term in nature. Barring something unforeseen involving Trouba or Fox, it appears to be a matter of when and how — not if — DeAngelo exits Broadway in the next few years.