Rangers vs Devils: Playoff Preview By The Numbers

For the second consecutive season, the Rangers have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After amassing a record of 47-22-13 and stockpiling 107 standings points, Gerard Gallant's squad finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division and have earned an opening round playoff matchup with their Hudson River rivals, the New Jersey Devils.

Making their first playoff appearance since 2018 and only their 2nd since 2012, this year's Devils team is in a strikingly similar position to last year's Blueshirts squad. Embarking on a season looking to take another positive step in their rebuilding efforts, the Devils smashed all pundit expectations. A 52-22-8 record kept them in contention for the Metropolitan Division title going into game 82 of the regular season, but they ended up falling short of the Carolina Hurricanes by a single point to set up this meeting with the Rangers.

The Devils got the better of their hated rivals during the regular season series, posting a 3-0-1 record against New York's 1-2-1 mark. Blown leads were a theme throughout the season series as each game featured somebody jump out to a 2-0 lead, but three of the four games saw that lead dissipate and the team trailing by two mount a comeback to win. Aside from those four games, the Rangers and Devils both played 78 other games throughout the season, so let's take a look at each team's performance in totality:

At first glance, the Devils appear to be an overwhelming favorite. Whether you want to look at performance in the four head to head meetings, since the trade deadline, or over the course of the full season, the Devils have had a better on-ice results across the board. Last season's Rangers were a poor team by any and all shot and scoring chance based metrics over the full season, but showed enough improvement following flurry their of deadline acquisitions that residents of Rangerstown were eager to focus only on those post-deadline results.

Interestingly, the reverse has happened this season, and those arguments are nowhere to be found. Rather than being concerned for New York's decline in on-ice performance following the acquisitions of Vladimir Tarasenko, Niko Mikkola, Tyler Motte, (for the second year in a row) and Patrick Kane, their sub-par performance is more or less hand waved away with statements like "they just need time to jell, they'll be fine." Given the situations Tarasenko and Kane were in prior to arriving on Broadway, it isn't even the most outlandish statement one could make about the state of the Rangers heading into the playoffs. Even still, the flip flop in sentiment from one year to the next is amusing.

The Devils have been a strong, rush-oriented team throughout the season, as discussed by The Athletic staff in their excellent breakdown of the series. After dropping their first two games of the season, New Jersey went on a monstrous    21-2-1 run that lasted through the first week of December. As the weather got cold, so did the Devils with an ugly 2-7-2 stretch from the second week of December through the first day of January.

Since then, the Devils have been a force. The team is yet to suffer consecutive regulation losses in 2023, and aside from a mid-March rough patch of 1-3-2, did not lose consecutive games period. Timo Meier was the biggest prize to be had in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, and Devils managed to land him without any major subtractions from their pre-deadline roster, further solidifying an already dangerous forward group.

Dougie Hamilton bounced back from his rough first season in Newark with a superstar 74 point effort from the back end this time around. Hamilton paired up with Jonas Siegenthaler for the majority of the season, a quietly effective partner that gives the Devils a top pair that can go toe to to with New York's duo of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren.

Former Blueshirts' prospect Ryan Graves anchor's the Devils' second defensive pairing, usually alongside former Pittsburgh Penguin John Marino. Damon Severson, New Jersey's longest tenured player, has spent more time on the third pair joined by a rotating cast of defenseman, usually Kevin Bahl or former Ranger Brendan Smith. The team agreed to an entry level contract with defenseman Luke Hughes, Jack's younger brother, and he made his professional debut prior to the end of the regular season, giving the Devils yet another option on the blue line.

The forward group is one led by a core of dynamic young players with a few battle tested veterans sprinkled into the mix. Former first overall picks Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier were first and second in scoring among all Devils forwards, Hughes finishing with 99 points and Hischier with 80. Jesper Bratt and Dawson Mercer, a 2020 first rounder selected with the pick the Devils received in the Taylor Hall trade, are the next two highest scoring forwards on the team.

Ondrej Palat missed a significant chunk of the season due to injury, but the two time Cup champion will be in the lineup on Tuesday. He'll be joined by Erik Haula and Tomas Tatar, both of whom skated for Vegas in their 2018 Cup Finals defeat.

The defense groups are relatively even with each other, and although the Rangers may have the edge in name brand forwards thanks to their splashy trade deadline performance, New Jersey has the edge when it comes to on-ice play. However, as is the case in every game the Blueshirts play, Igor Shesterkin will serve as the great equalizer in net.

Although his .916 save percentage is only slightly better than Vitek Vanecek's .911 mark, Shesterkin came on strong after a rough start following his Vezina winning campaign last season. Vanecek entered the season looking to earn a large slice of a timeshare pie with Mackenzie Blackwood, and he did just that and is now the unquestioned starter for New Jersey. Any goalie in the league is capable of going on a save percentage bender for a series or two, or even three or four to win it all, but if there's one position New York inarguably holds the edge in, it's who is manning the pipes for their respective teams.

All of that results in a series that sports books have established the Devils as slight favorites heading into the season. For the Rangers fans that moonlight as plus hunters at their gambling outlet of choice, you're in luck. If you'd want to see how hockey's brightest analytic inclined minds view the series before wagering, they're a bit all over the place.

The Athletic gives the Devils the edge with a 55% chance to move on to the Metropolitan Division finals, and the fine folks at Moneypuck like the Devils a tad more, putting New Jersey's odds of advancing at 58.3%. Meanwhile, Micah Blake McCurdy's model thinks highly of the Rangers, giving them a 60% chance to knock of their hated rivals to kick off a playoff run.

The first playoff series between New York and New Jersey since 2012 has the makings to be a great one. Will the Rangers be able to handle the Devils' speed and skill that overwhelmed them during the season? Will the Devils' rush-heavy attack carry over to the more physical, defense-first style that the playoffs tend to bring about? There's only one way to find out, and that'll happen once the puck is dropped for Game 1.

Prediction: Devils over Rangers in six games