Rangers By The Numbers Game Preview: Rangers @ Penguins

Rangers vs Penguins coverage

Nothing Has Changed- The Penguins Are Still Scary

I don't want to waste too much time overanalyzing things. So go to Tuesday's preview, read about what makes the Penguins great and Marc-Andre Fleury's goaltending success to start the season. I'll wait...

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Welcome back.

Earlier this week, the Penguins uncharacteristically went 0 for 3 on the powerplay (only the 4th time all season they did not record a PP goal) and were skunked by Henrik Lundqvist, who made 33 saves en route to his 53rd career shutout. He is the Rangers all-time leader in preventing the other team from scoring any goals in a game.

However, Pittsburgh rebounded to record a 2-1 win at Toronto last night, in which they absolutely gatored the Corsi battle.

The Rangers, on the other hand, fell flat on Thursday against Colorado. In particular, they started extremely slow, and allowed a team that does not specialize in possession to essentially speed bag them for 40 minutes en route to a 4-3 overtime shootout loss vs the Avs. Sure, the offense had some fair to excellent scoring chances against a team that scrambles in the defensive zone. But sustained offensive pressure was lacking, and you simply can't wait for a team to shell up to get pressure that will lead to goals. Trading blows with a team that gets most of its scoring done on rushes, much like the Oilers, is just asking for trouble. Take a look at the even strength game flow to get an idea of how that one went.

Credit: naturalstattrick.com

As you can see, the offense did get going in that game but it was after the scoring was done and way too late, as Colorado just held on to assure they get a point. A spat of defensive breakdowns (Boyle looked very rusty) and too much sustained pressure against them in their own zone was problematic all game.

Key To The Game: Attack Early

Tonight the Penguins return home from their 5 game road trip for the tail end of a back-to-back. They could be feeling the effects of fatigue, but they will also be motivated by the 5-0 drubbing they took at MSG earlier this week. I actually expect a crisp effort early. From both teams. This could be a fun game to watch. And isn't that nice, on a Saturday night?

But it is imperative that the Rangers set the tone in the possession battle, and ideally score early. Right now, the Penguins lead the league in 5v5 FF% (61.22%) and CF% (55.71%) when leading by a goal. The discrepancy in the two numbers has to do with the fact that they block an inordinate amount of shots when they have a lead (FF% does not include blocked shots, so the total number of attempts against is reduced). But they aren't shelling up, because those numbers are still very much in the positive. So it simply means that when this team has a one goal lead, they suppress shots better.

Now, I could tell you that the Rangers do fine in the shot attempt battle when playing from behind. And they do. They drive play when losing. But with the defense still susceptible to big mistakes, and against a team that can pile up goals, on the PP or otherwise, in a hurry, I think playing at evens with a lead early is going to be much easier than not.

Expected Lines

I expect to see Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes for the Penguins again, and likely Lundqvist for the Rangers. Both are rested and ready to go.

Something I do not understand for the life of me, is why Anthony Duclair is scratched again. I got nothing. But it looks like Dan Boyle is in again. I don't know if he was rushed back or not and he will be playing through pain for some time. But to be perfectly honest, he didn't look comfortable. It had less to do with his hands and more to do with being out of action for a while. Forwards can mix into a flow. Defensemen on the other hand sometimes get jumped on when they are rusty. Let's see if he is one game more comfortable tonight and helps stabilize the defense's ability to move pucks up ice. Like I said on Twitter:

Boyle looks a bit lost. Takes time. Not like riding a bike folks, I can tell you firsthand.

— Nick Mercadante (@nmercad) November 14, 2014

Of note for Pittsburgh, they reunited Pascal Dupuis with Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz on the first line after the loss at MSG. Patrick Hornqvist has been moved to the second line with Evgeni Malkin. Blake Comeau sits, so Nick Spaling gets bumped up to that line. Not surprisingly, Dupuis had a big game against the Leafs last night.

Rangers:

Rick Nash – Derick Brassard – Martin St. Louis

Chris Kreider – Derek Stepan – Mats Zuccarello

Carl Hagelin – Kevin Hayes – Lee Stempniak

Tanner Glass – Dominic Moore – Jesper Fast

Marc Staal – Dan Boyle

John Moore – Dan Girardi

Matt Hunwick – Kevin Klein

Henrik Lundqvist

Cam Talbot

Scratched: Anthony Duclair

Injured: Ryan McDonagh (shoulder)

Penguins:

Chris Kunitz – Sidney Crosby – Pascal Dupuis

Nick Spaling – Evgeni Malkin – Patric Hornqvist

Beau Bennett – Brandon Sutter – Steve Downie

Zach Sill – Marcel Goc – Craig Adams

Paul Martin – Kris Letang

Christian Ehrhoff – Robert Bortuzzo

Rob Scuderi – Simon Despres

Marc-Andre Fleury

Thomas Greiss

Scratched: None

Injured: Olli Maatta (thyroid), Blake Comeau (illness)

#AxelGraphs

Here are line comparison charts. Note that Axel has changed the original setup to a 2014-15 Raw Corsi (pertaining to CF/60 and CA/60) to paint a clearer picture of how the matchup may go, based strictly on Raw Corsi numbers. This is something more of you will be familiar with. If you have any questions, shoot them in the comments and I'll try to answer.

You can see that the 2nd and third lines match up very closely, in almost everything, which is kind of wild. Of course, this may change as Hornqvist and Dupuis have flip-flopped lines as of last night:

As you can see from the graphs below...Pittsburgh's top D pair has been damned solid:

Stats compiled from: nhl.com, naturalstattrick.com, hockeystats.ca, war-on-ice.com, fenwick-stats.com and stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Follow @nmercad