Risk, Rewards, and Drama: Breaking Down the Rangers' J.T. Miller Trade Saga

Last week the New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks were thisclose on a trade that would have sent J.T. Miller back to New York. As the days have gone on, more and more has come out about the potential return, and what potentially caused the deal to fall apart, at least for now.

The question is: Why was Drury willing to do this in this (reported) way? And more importantly, what was the plan after the fact?

The Reported Deal Itself

Reportedly, the Rangers were getting back Miller and only Miller. In anticipation of the deal, and to show how close things really were, the Rangers held three of their top five scorers in Hartford — Adam Sykora, Bo Groulx, and Jaroslav Chmelar — out for that night's game. The next thing we knew, the deal was off and everything was "normal" again.

The Athletic teamed up with reporters from both sides to discuss the entire thing, and the key takeaway for why the deal fell apart (emphasis mine):

Rangers center Filip Chytil, defenseman Ryan Lindgren and some future-focused assets — the Rangers surprisingly scratched several Hartford Wolfpack players on Saturday, although it was unclear if it was trade-related — including a first-round pick could have been involved. One source briefed on the trade talks indicated that a disagreement on the protection structure of a first-round pick was a key hurdle.

It is also worth noting here that the trade wasn't reported to be all of those things, but some combination of them. The name most circulated in the media was Chytil, so fair to say it was Chytil, a first round pick, and some combination of the prospects held out from the Wolf Pack.

There are a few things about this I have issues with, or at least some questions about.

The Miller-Zibanejad Connection

But before I get there, I want to go here: In my mind, no Miller trade makes sense without Mika Zibanejad going back the other way. And in the event Zibanejad doesn't want Vancouver, or Vancouver doesn't want Zibanejad, then the deal shouldn't happen.

Part of the reason the two teams seemed intertwined was because both players are ongoing issues for their respective teams.

Zibanejad is a sinking asset, a defensive and 5v5 liability, a shell of himself on the power play, and someone who fully quit on this team for six-to-seven weeks in November and December. "Disaster" isn't a strong enough word.

On the other hand, Miller has been involved in at least one altercation (doesn't appear to by physical) that might have led to his leave of absence from the Canucks.

He and Elias Pettersson also happen to have a beef that has gone public and made its way around the league and got us to this point. Vancouver is, correctly, selecting Pettersson as the player they want to keep in this, and it's more than likely Miller is going to be moved at some point sooner rather than later.

In terms of each player: Miller has an $8-million AAV contract that goes through 2030. He has a full no-movement clause for the next two years which then becomes a limited no-trade. His contract is also not signing-bonus heavy so the Rangers could buy him out if they needed to with cap ramifications they'd probably be willing to accept. All of these things sound not great for a 32-year old, but they are wildly better than the Zibanejad (also 32) contract which has a NMC through the life of it (also 2030) and is so weighted with signing bonuses there is virtually no cap savings in a buyout.

Looking at it that way, the trade makes sense.

Zibanejad and Miller slot in nicely for one another financially. Not every team can just absorb an $8.5-million hit — which Vancouver would be able to do if they sent off Miller — and in return for Vancouver, not every team can just absorb an $8-million hit the way the Rangers can, who for once have a healthy amount of cap space to deal with.

It's entirely possible Vancouver wants no part of Zibanejad a a return in this deal, which is fine, but it also voids the deal for me. I have more thoughts on this, but the simple fact is Miller and Zibanejad would combine for $16.5-million on the cap through 2030 with one of those guys legally required to remain on the roster until he says he doesn't want to be there anymore.

Filip Chytil

Just to get this out of the way at the top: All of the below is written from a business perspective. Obviously the top priority is for Chytil to live and long and healthy life. The hockey stuff is secondary.

It is entirely reasonable to look at Filip Chytil and assess the risk of whether or not he is going to be a long-term asset to this team. There is undeniable talent in the 25-year old, and he plays hockey in a way that makes you jump out of your seat. He's electric when he's going, can drive play, and plays solid defense. But he's also literally one hit away from likely never playing hockey again, having sustained multiple concussions over the course of his short NHL career.

I love Chytil, and love what he provides for this team. But obviously there are longer-term concerns here that exist and will never really go away.

If the Rangers feel the risk isn't worth the reward with Chytil, then I understand them exploring the trade market for him. And as much as I love Chytil, I would actually argue it's the smart thing to do.

All of that said, though, Chytil's risk and Miller's risk are not the same thing, as I outline here:

The 1st Round Pick

I know the Rangers aren't rebuilding. Let me say that before anything else in this section. I get that they're retooling and the idea is for them to be back in the playoffs next year and beyond. I get it.

What I don't get is the Rangers moving out draft picks when they have no assets to work with. That bill is going to come due at some point, and Miller isn't going to help in that regard.

Not that any of the prospects held out were anything special — Skyora probably has the most upside of the three, and I'm not sure he does anything Berard doesn't — but the Rangers have glaringly large issues with their prospect pool and have almost no draft picks beyond the first round for the next three years. To trade one of those picks for, again, a Vancouver problem is shocking to me.

There's also the issue of what the Rangers' current playoff position — outside, looking in — means for that first round pick. Missing the playoffs would mean the Rangers were in the lottery for the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NHL draft. As of today, MoneyPuck gives the Rangers a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That's up significantly from where they were when they collectively decided to quick playing hockey, but it's still not great and there's a log jam of teams within striking distance of the second wild card slot. If the Rangers were to include a first round draft pick in the return for Miller, it has to be lottery-protected.

Sure, Lindgren, Reilly Smith, and Jimmy Vesey are almost assuredly going to be moved by the deadline. And maybe the focus will be on bringing back mid-round picks, and that's fine. But the first round picks are the ones that mean the most, and with a prospect pool that was potentially going to be even more depleted in that Miller trade, I just don't understand it.

Overall Thoughts

Miller to the Rangers makes a lot of sense. He wants to be here. He scores in bunches. He can swing to the wing or play center. He is a power play presence. And most importantly, he plays the game like an asshole he type of asshole — the Rangers want and need on their hockey team.

The problem is there's a slew of risk in not moving Zibanejad for him. Miller's offense is amazing, but a lot of it comes on the power play, his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired, and his play driving is no longer elite. He's also something of a locker room issue, but honestly with how much of a mess this locker room is he might be a major improvement. I could not see Miller accepting the Rangers' play in November and December at all. I'd take Miller on this team warts and all, but it's the other factor that matters.

Those risks are okay when Zibanejad is going the other way. If he isn't, then we have a problem.

You can scream at me until your blue in the face that the plan isn't for Zibanejad to be here long term (I agree), that Drury's top priority is moving him (I agree), that some teams would be interested in him (I agree), and that they can make life uncomfortable for him if he doesn't want to wait (I agree).

What I don't agree with is the foregone conclusion that it's okay for the Rangers to have both on the team this year because Zibanejad is going to be gone next year. Unless Zibanejad inks his name on the paper that commits him to waiving his NMC he's a Ranger until he doesn't want to be.

And that, to me, is the biggest issue surrounding all of this.

Joe's Prediction?

I do think the Rangers and Canucks come together on a deal they like for Miller. If the true holdup was the protections around the first round pick, it's hard to see a world where Drury can't make that work.

This isn't me endorsing the trade, it's just me putting two and two together that Miller wants to be in New York and New York wants him. And there's so much other drama surrounding Miller (like the team suggesting tampering) that I don't see a way he isn't moved.

I do think a lot of the rumors around the Devils being involved was created to get Drury to make moves. I'm not saying Miller wouldn't go to New Jersey I'm just saying the return and fit probably doesn't match what the Rangers can do. Absorbing the entire contract here is huge – which is why I think Drury needs to force the issue with Zibanejad.